Publication Date: 
May 2011

Number of Pages:  70

Number of Exhibits: 35

Version 8.2

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Q2 2011 Indonesia Mobile Services Market with an Assessment and Forecast of the Mobile VAS, Application and Content Market to 2015.  

   

Market research and forecast of Indonesia's mobile services market. Publication outlines the opportunities for mobile applications as well as  forecasts for mobile data VAS (Value Added Services ) revenue and subscriber growth.

 
Abstract

In 2011, Indonesian consumers are keenly embracing mobile applications, with email, social networking, and music being all the rage from Jakarta to Surabaya. Our forecast for the Indonesian market shows good incremental growth for mobile applications – with revenue for mobile VAS (excluding SMS) and mobile applications to pass the hundred million dollar mark next year. APRG’s 2011 market research provides an in-depth look at the growth segments of the mobile services business in Indonesia. It outlines how Indonesia’s mobile operators, application and content providers are positioning themselves to compete in Indonesia’s mobile services market. This report reviews opportunities, strengths, weaknesses and risks of this emerging market of over 240 million people.   

This report covers the following topics of the mobile communications market in Indonesia:

Commercial, technical and social issues relating to mobile VAS market in Indonesia

Consumer's view of their desires for mobile content and mobile applications   

Mobile subscribers, penetration and ARPU

Number of subscribers and expected revenues from data services with CDMA EV-DO technology from Qualcomm

Mobile VAS business model and value chain in Indonesia

Market share and mobile application growth strategy of the leading Mobile Service Providers 

Consumer's buying patterns for mobile content and applications

Some of the questions answered in this report: 

• What is the size of the market for mobile apps and mobile value added services in Indonesia? 

• What opportunities and risks are there in the Indonesia mobile services and mobile content market? 

• Which mobile applications genres are the most popular? 

• How do consumers learn of and buy new mobile content such as ringtones, music, games, wallpaper, etc.? 

• Where do consumers source their mobile content and applications? How pervasive is side-loading of applications? 

• What are the mobile VAS and application growth strategies of Indosat, XL, Telkomsel, Bakrie Telecom and other Mobile Service Providers? 

• How compelling is the CDMA EV-DO service sector in Indonesia? What is the revenue forecast?

Table of Contents:

1. Introduction 

Report Objectives 

Forecast Assumptions 

2. Executive Summary and Market Forecast 

- SWOT Analysis 

- Mobile Penetration 2002 to 2015 

- Indonesia’s Mobile Subscriber Growth Forecast to 2015 

- Key Drivers behind Indonesia’s Mobile Subscriber Growth 

- Analysis of the Indonesian Youth Market for Mobile Applications 

- Prepaid vs. Postpaid Subscribers 

- Indonesia's Mobile ARPU Achievements (Historical and Outlook) 

3. GSM Mobile Service Provider Growth Strategies 

- PT PT Telekomunikasi Seluler (Telkomsel) 

- PT Indonesian Satellite Corporation 

- INDOSAT 

- PT EXCELCOMINDO PRATAMA  

- PT Natrindo Telepon Seluler 

– Lippo Telecom 

- Hutchison CP Telecom  

4. CDMA Mobile Service Provider Growth Strategies 

- PT Mobile-8 CDMA Network 

- BakrieTel 

– Esia CDMA Network 

- TelkomFlexi CDMA Network 

- Indosat’s StarOne CDMA Network 

- Smart Telecom 

5. The Mobile Content and Application Business in Indonesia 

Percentage of Mobile Revenues from Content and Applications 

Revenue Growth and Forecast of Mobile VAS and Applications to 2015 

Table of Figures 

Figure 1. Market Share – Indonesia’s Mobile Operators 

Figure 2. Annual Percentage Growth of Mobile Subscribers 2004 – 2015F. 

Figure 3. Indonesia – Mobile Subscribers 2003 – 2015F 

Figure 4. Indonesia’s Mobile Penetration 2004 – 2015F 

Figure 5. Indonesia’s Mobile Penetration Comparison to Neighboring Countries 

Figure 6. Youth Population in Indonesia, 2011 

Figure 7. Survey of 16-24 year old Indonesians on their decision criteria to purchase a mobile service 

Figure 8. Overall Percentage of Prepaid vs. Postpaid Subscribers and Percentage of New Subscribers opting for Prepaid vs. Postpaid services 

Figure 9. Blended ARPU 2004 – 2012 Indonesia's Leading Mobile Operators 

Figure 12. Mobile Subscriber Growth with CDMA Technology in Indonesia, 2004 – 2015F 

Figure 13. CDMA Service Providers - Market Share in Indonesia, Q2 2010 

Figure 14. CDMA Mobile Broadband Forecast: EV-DO Subscriber and Revenue Growth Forecast. 2010 to 2015 

Figure 15. MVAS Service Delivery Platform Strategy in Indonesia 

Figure 16. Mobile VAS and SMS Revenue as Percentage of Overall Revenue 

Figure 17. Revenue Growth in Mobile VAS Services (excluding P2P SMS), 2005 – 2015F 

Figure 18. Boleh.net’s mobile app portal in Indonesia 

Figure 19. Indosat's i-go mobile portal 

Figure 20. The Mig33 Portal 

Figure 21. Typical Mobile VAS Content Costs by Genre in Indonesia 

Figure 22. Consumer Survey: Which mobile App or VAS service have you used in the last 30 days? 

Figure 23. Consumer Survey: Most Popular SMS Content Choices 

Figure 24. Consumer Survey: How frequently do you purchase ringtones, games or wallpaper? 

Figure 25. Consumer Survey: Which of the following mobile game genres do you find most appealing for purchase? 

Figure 26. Consumer Survey: Most Popular Games Loaded on Mobile Phones in Indonesia 

Figure 27. Consumer Survey: Which music genres do you find most appealing and typically purchase for Ringtones 

Figure 28. Age and Sex Distribution of Indonesian Ringtone Purchasers 

Figure 29. Consumer Survey: Wallpaper Content Choices in Indonesia 

Figure 30. Consumer Survey: Where Indonesians Learn About New Mobile VAS and Applications 

Figure 31. Consumer Survey: How Indonesians Purchase New Mobile VAS and Content 

Figure 32. Indonesia MVAS and Apps – What’s Growing, Peaking and Declining in 2011 

Figure 33. Consumer Survey: Indonesian Users Intention to Upgrade to a 3G Handset 

Figure 34. Methodology Figure 35. Survey Demographics: Summary of Age, Sex, Employment, Education Levels 

Figure 36. Consumer Survey – Where do you primarily access the Internet from? 

Figure 37. Survey Demographics – Employment by Industry.